A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
